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QB Support 2012 Week 2

DISCLAIMER/REMINDER: High numbers correspond with strong play of a QB's TEAM, not the QB while low numbers correspond with weak play of a QB's TEAM, not the QB. Essentially, the lower the number, the harder it was for the QB to win the game.

TEXANS	M. Schaub	WIN	6.035
SEAHAWKS	R. Wilson	WIN	6.01
DOLPHINS	R. Tannenhill	WIN	5.985
RAVENS	J. Flacco	LOSS	4.965
BILLS	R. Fitzpatrick	WIN	4.755
PACKERS	A. Rodgers	WIN	4.43
PATRIOTS	T. Brady	LOSS	4.415
CHARGERS	P. Rivers	WIN	4.335
GIANTS	E. Manning	WIN	3.84
CARDINALS	K. Kolb	WIN	3.775
STEELERS	B. Roethlisberger	WIN	3.39
BEARS	J. Cutler	LOSS	3.38
49ERS	A. Smith	WIN	3.315
BRONCOS	P. Manning	LOSS	3.285
PANTHERS	C. Newton	WIN	3.17
BUCCANEERS	J. Freeman	LOSS	2.735
COLTS	A. Luck	WIN	2.445
VIKINGS	C. Ponder	LOSS	2.42
BENGALS	A. Dalton	WIN	2.34
EAGLES	M. Vick	WIN	2.075
FALCONS	M. Ryan	WIN	1.97
SAINTS	D. Brees	LOSS	1.695
LIONS	M. Stafford	LOSS	1.68
RAMS	S. Bradford	WIN	1.57
REDSKINS	R. Griffin III	LOSS	1.51
JAGUARS	B. Gabbert	LOSS	1.4
JETS	M. Sanchez	LOSS	1.3
BROWNS	B. Wheeden	LOSS	1.2
COWBOYS	T. Romo	LOSS	0.7
CHIEFS	M. Cassell	LOSS	0.01
TITANS	J. Locker	LOSS	-0.995
RAIDERS	C. Palmer	LOSS	-1.01

QB Support 2012 Week 1

DISCLAIMER/REMINDER: High numbers correspond with strong play of a QB's TEAM, not the QB while low numbers correspond with weak play of a QB's TEAM, not the QB. Essentially, the lower the number, the harder it was for the QB to win the game.  WEEK 1
PATRIOTS	T. BRADY	WIN	5.365
RAVENS	J. FLACCO	WIN	5.295
TEXANS	M. SCHAUB	WIN	5.275
EAGLES	M. VICK	WIN	5.070
SEAHAWKS	R. WILSON	LOSS	4.925
BROWNS	B. WHEEDEN	LOSS	4.310
49ers	A. SMITH	WIN	4.290
BUCCANEERS	J. FREEMAN	WIN	4.205
VIKINGS	C. PONDER	WIN	4.080
LIONS	M. STAFFORD	WIN	3.495
JETS	M. SANCHEZ	WIN	3.470
COWBOYS	T. ROMO	WIN	3.415
DOLPHINS	R. TANNENHILL	LOSS	3.300
BEARS	J. CUTLER	WIN	3.270
CARDINALS	KOLB/SKELTON	WIN	3.230
CHARGERS	P. RIVERS	WIN	3.210
JAGUARS	B. GABBERT	LOSS	2.605
FALCONS	M. RYAN	WIN	2.585
BRONCOS	P. MANNING	WIN	2.365
RAMS	S. BRADFORD	LOSS	2.325
REDSKINS	R. GRIFFIN III	WIN	1.915
GIANTS	E. MANNING	LOSS	1.530
STEELERS	B. ROETHLISBERGER	LOSS	1.515
BILLS	R. FITZPATRICK	LOSS	1.405
PANTHERS	C. NEWTON	LOSS	1.205
CHIEFS	M. CASSELL	LOSS	1.180
PACKERS	A. RODGERS	LOSS	0.620
SAINTS	D. BREES	LOSS	0.330
RAIDERS	C. PALMER	LOSS	0.225
BENGALS	A. DALTON	LOSS	0.120
COLTS	A. LUCK	LOSS	0.060
TITANS	J. LOCKER	LOSS	-0.015

QB Support 2012

UPDATE: Although I am saddened by the lack of transparency it creates, I've removed the specific calculations that I use to determine QB support. I've received a lot of positive feedback, and am in the process of seeking some sort of publication of this material. I realize it takes a certain degree of hubris to believe that one's ideas are worth stealing in the first place, but readers will have to forgive me for the time being. 

As the 2012 season is upon us, I am releasing a new (and hopefully improved) QB Support metric. This metric is designed to be more comprehensive, and also a little more sensible. As a result, it's also slightly more complicated, but it still employs only basic arithmetic in analyzing basic statistics.

The new metric tries to take into field position, number of possessions, and quarterbacks' own mistakes into account. It also addresses the kicking game by adjusting support levels depending on missed or made field goals from various distances.


CALCULATING TOTAL QUARTERBACK SUPPORT
The metric will be referred to as Total Quarterback Support ("TQS"). There are five major categories that are considered in calculating TQS:

1. "Total Points allowed" ("TPA")
2. "Kicking Support" ("KS")
2. Rushing Support ("RS")
3. Field Position and Possessions "FPP"
4. Turnovers by OTHER Offensive Players ("OffTO")
5. QB Mistakes "QBM"

TQS = TPA + KS + RS + FPP + OffTO + QBM

The thought is that not all wins are created equal from the perspective of the QB. A win may be more or less difficult depending on how the rest of the team plays, as measured here by how much team "supports" its QB. That support is a function of points that the rest of the team allows (and the QB then has to generate with the offense), how much the other plays on the QB's team can generate in rushing yards, how well or poorly the kicker converts field goals, what kind of field position the QB gets, and the mistakes that the QB makes for which the rest of team has to make up.

TOTAL POINTS ALLOWED 
Points allowed are calculated by a "TOTAL POINTS ALLOWED" metric that takes into account
1. The actual points a QB's opponent puts on the board. Let's call this number "Pts".
2. The points that a QB's defense or special teams contributes, plus any extra points (i.e. an interception for a touchdown would count as 7). Let's call this number "D/ST"
3. The points that an opponent's defense scores because of turnover by the QB (i.e. a pick 6 or QB's fumble that is returned for a touchdown or a QB sacked for a safety). We'll call this number "QB ERR"

TOTAL POINTS ALLOWED = Pts - D/ST - QB ERR

The goal of this individual metric is to calculate how many points a QB must overcome to come out on top at the end of the game. If the defense allows 14 points, but also returns two interceptions for touchdowns and adds a safety, a QB doesn't actually have to overcome any points at all. Also, if a QB throws three interceptions that are returned for touchdowns, and loses 21-17, it doesn't make sense to say that his team was not supporting the QB by allowing 21 points.

**REMOVED**

KICKING SUPPORT
The goal of including kicking support is to recognize that a good (or bad) kicker does make it easier (or harder) for a QB to win a game. If QB1 wins 15-14, and his kicker hit 5 field goals from 55 yards out, that QB1 is not necessarily playing better than QB2 who lost 14-9 when QB2's kicker missed three field goals from inside the 30.

KICKING SUPPORT IS CALCULATED AS FOLLOWS
**REMOVED**

RUSHING SUPPORT
The simplest category is simply designed to incorporate the help a QB gets by having a robust rushing attack. Rushing support is calculated as a function of each rushing yard that a QB's teammate (but NOT the QB himself) generates. Obviously, a QB who runs for 100 yards is not getting more "supported" by his team than a QB who does not run. Rather, that QB is making plays with his own legs.

**REMOVED**

FIELD POSITION AND POSSESSIONS
First, a QB's support level takes into account how many times he gets the ball. All effort is made to eliminate "useless possessions." For example, when a QB's team gets the ball on their own ten with ten seconds left in the half, it's likely that they will take a knee and run out the clock. These possessions are not "counted" in tallying the total number of possessions for QB.

The average number of possessions in the NFL is somewhere between 11 and 12. This is used as the baseline, and 11 total possessions adds 0 points to TQS.**REMOVED**


Second, the support metric also takes into account the field possession a QB has.**REMOVED**


TURNOVERS BY TEAMMATES
Likewise, turnovers (usually fumbles) from OTHER offensive players that end drives for a QB subtract from total support. The degree to which the effect the total metric depends on where the turnover occurs.

Because
1. "Total Points Allowed" already factors in the points a QB must overcome
AND
2. A QB is deemed to be "more supported" when he is given possession closer to his opponents endzone
turnovers from teammates subtract more points when they occur closer to the opponents endzone.
**REMOVED**

QB MISTAKES
QB interceptions and fumbles represent plays where the QB makes it more difficult for the rest of his team. As such, interceptions and fumbles that place the defense in a compromising position add to TQS ("more on this in the justifications section").

For each QB turnover that ends with the opponent gaining possession on the opponent's 40 or better, points are added to TQS.

**REMOVED**

JUSTIFICATIONS/FAQ
1. Why a have a QB support metric at all?
This metric was born out of my increasing frustration that people seem so interested in measuring a QB's success by his wins and losses, especially in the post-season. Certainly, a QB's ability to remain calm under pressure is important. Still, trying to stay that Trent Dilfer is better than Dan Marino is absurd. Anyone who remembers watching Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers defeat the Seattle Seahawks in Superbowl XL knows that sometimes a team wins not because, but in spite of their QB's performance.

This metric is NOT a measure of how good a QB played. Rather, it is measure of how well the rest of the team "supported" him to create a win. Thus, it helps tell more of a story of which QBs are riding strong defenses and great rushing attacks and which QBs need to do most of the heavy lifting if their team is going to win.

2. If it's about "Other" players, why include QB mistakes?
The metric is designed to show how well the rest of the team "supports" the QB to help increase the probability of a win. One of the large factors is how many points the defense allows. Obviously, a "pick-six" should be subtracted. If a QB throws four interceptions that are all returned for touchdowns, it be hard to argue that he was "less supported" by his defense because the opponent scored 28 points. Perhaps less obvious, but equally important, if a QB throws an interception that gives his opponent the ball the 50, or even worse at the QB's own 10 yard line, that also affects the defense's ability to keep points off the board.

Thus, if all else is equal, my metric considers a QB who turns the ball over in his own territory as "more supported" than one who does not. Consider this example: QB 1's team lost 28-14 and so did QB 2's team. Both QB's started all their drives from their own 20, and both teams rushed for 120 yards. QB 1 threw no interceptions. QB 2 fumbled once on his own five, and threw two interceptions that were run back to his own 10. Which team helped or hurt his QB more by allowing "only" 28 points?

3. Why don't you count QB turnovers deep in their opponent's territory?
The reason I don't count turnovers deep into the opponents territory may seem odd, but there is a method to the madness. The point is NOT to determine how a good a QB is playing, but rather how much help he's getting from his team.

If a QB drives down the field and throws an interception, the result is the same as if they missed a 3rd down and had to punt the ball. In terms of his team's ability to keep points off the board or control field position, there's no difference. Since I do not adjust QB support for failure to convert third downs, it doesn't make sense to adjust for a QB who throws a 50 yard pass that gets picked off in the end zone. Not only that, if they drove down the field largely by using the ground game, that "support" is still factored into TQS.

4. Why are turnovers by a QB's teammate counted more if they are deep in an opponent's territory
Obviously a RB who fumbles the ball on his own 1 yard line has made it LESS likely that the team will win the game. So why does that affect QB support less than if he fumbles at the 50 yard line? The "Total Points" metric will be affected if the opponent capitalizes on the great field position and, to count the turnover and the touchdown, would create a kind of doubling effect. If a QB has to overcome 7 points because the special teams allowed a return touchdown or because his RB fumbled the ball on the 1, it doesn't really make a difference EXCEPT for of course the fact that the QB has now lost "one possession" that he would have had otherwise.

Meanwhile, a QB who drives down the whole field only to have the RB fumble the ball has lost an opportunity that is not otherwise accounted for in the overall metric. Of course, if the RB ran the ball the whole way OR if the team was merely close to scoring because of defensive turnover, the QB is not exactly being "let down" by the team as a whole. However, the loss of support from the fumble will be, at least to some extent, offset by the gain in support from the individual Rushing Support or Field Position Support metric.


ADMITTED PROBLEMS
I'll brief, but that's not because the problems are brief. All sports statistics are flawed, and this metric is no exception. There are two major problems with the metric.

First, there are factors it is unable to measure. The quality of a QB's offensive line, the talent of his WR's corps, the extent to which the QB's own ability keeps the defense honest in the run game, etc. To my knowledge, there is still no calculation to quantify "Throwing to Megatron" to adjust Matt Stafford's support level or, if we were to go back to 2006, to put in a "Throwing to Reche Caldwell" for Brady. At a later point, I could potentially add in drops, but even that could be flawed. 

Second, the factors for which the metric does account are accounted for in a somewhat arbitrary manner. Why make each rushing yard .X? Why not .Y? These numbers were not picked at random, and I will use another post to discuss them in more depth if there appears to be interest. Nevertheless, any decision about the values selected is imperfect. It is at this level that the metric is more of an art than a science.Nevertheless, the fact the metric uses standards that do not differentiate for each QB and each game insures that they are least telling us SOMETHING. Whether that "something" is useful or not, however, is a question without a definitive answer.

QB Support: Why Manning isn't really a Choke-Artist

Proposing a New Statistic in A QB Centric World

When discussing the NFL, fans and analysts love to talk about a Quarterback's winning percentage, especially in the playoffs. And so we count how many of their fingers are decorated with Superbowl Rings and talk about which QBs "know how to win." What about the rest of the team? Do they make a difference?

Well, today I am proposing a new “aggregate statistic” somewhat akin to QB rating. Instead of adding up different measures of the QB, why not look at the measures of the rest of the team. The better defense and the ground game, the more "support" for the QB. Think about it this way If your team is running the ball for 200 yards and holding the other team to 10 points while creating 3 turnovers, it doesn’t take an all-pro to lead you to victory.

"QB Support" takes into how account who wins the rushing battle, points allowed by the defense, turnovers generated by the defense, and also defensive and special teams TDs. I include exactly how I calculate "QB Support" at the end of this post (for those interested in the numbers). For now though, let's look at three pro-bowl caliber QBs, how they've fared in the playoffs, and what light, if any, "QB support" can shed.

BEN ROETHLISBERGER, TOM BRADY, AND PEYTON MANNING: A CASE STUDY

If you look at playoff wins and losses, Roethlisberger is 10-3 (77% wins) with two rings, Brady is 14-5 (74 % wins) with three rings, and Manning is 9-10 (47 % wins) and 1 ring. Just for the sake of this argument, let’s momentarily exclude 2006 for Manning (The year he won the SB). That would put him at a dismal 5-10 (33 % wins) and no rings.

The win-loss records suggest that Manning just plays horrible during the playoffs, which has been possibly backed up in people’s mind by two ineffective playoff games against the then stingier Patriots defense in 2003 and 2004. Still, Manning hasn’t played comparatively poor in the playoffs. He has, however, continually received low levels of "QB support" in his non-Superbowl years. Let's look at QB rating in the playoffs, win-loss records, and the average support levels received by all three.

	Playoff QB RATING	Playoff WIN-LOSS Record	Average Support Level
Roethlisberger	85.7	10-3	2.90
Brady	85.4	14-5	2.96
Manning (excluding SB year)	93.0	5-10	0.58

Averages are sometimes not as informative though, so let’s look at how the support level affects individual games. Specifically, let’s look at games where support was above 1.5, where it was between 0 and 1.5, and where it was below 0.

WIN-LOSS RECORDS ACROSS DIFFERENT SUPPORT LEVELS
	Above 1.5	Between 0 and 1.5	Below 0
Roethlisberger	10-0	0-1	0-2
Brady	13-0	1-2	0-3
Manning (excluding SB year)	3-0	1-2	1-8

Now, let’s take a look at some averages of the individual statistics that lead to support levels.

A LOOK AT THE INDIVIDUAL STATISTICS
	Rush Yards for	Rush Yards Against	Turnovers generated/gm	Def or SP TDs/gm	Pts allowed
Roethlisberger	116.17	78.69	1.77	0.31	21.17
Brady	108.74	100.42	1.89	0.32	19.26
Manning (excluding SB Year)	77.87	142.867	1.53	0.00	22.20

LOOKING DEEPER: MANNING vs. MANNING and BRADY vs. BRADY

Throughout this exercise, we’ve been excluding Manning’s superbowl year to make a point that all those playoff losses might have more to do with factors Manning does not directly control than with his poor play. And yet, he won a superbowl anyway. It should be even more impressive considering his typically low levels of support. Right? Meanwhile, Brady took full advantage of high support levels to start his career by going 10-0 in the playoffs. Since then, he’s gone 4-5. He must have lost his magic, right?

Wrong on both counts. I said earlier that “averages” aren’t that useful. They can be, but the more you can break it down, the better. This is why I took out Manning’s superbowl year. Let’s take a quick look at that year for a comparison.

	QB Rating	Average Support level	WIN-LOSS Record
Manning (excluding SB year)	93.0	0.58	5-10
Manning’s SB Year	70.55	4.82	4-0

The truth is, Manning was not playing his best playoff football that year. It wasn’t that he finally got over the hump. It was that his team did. A two-headed ground game featuring Rhodes and Addai and an opportunistic defense that came alive in the playoffs was what the Colts were missing years past. It wasn’t poor QB play that was holding them back. I want to break down some of the individual statistics because I think they’re instructive.

	Rush Yards for	Rush Yards Against	Turnovers generated/gm	Def or SP TDs/gm	Pts allowed
Manning (excluding SB Year)	77.87	142.87	1.53	0.00	22.20
Manning’s SB year	151.00	83.25	2.75	0.00	17.00

I think this also makes the case that these statistics are not merely “products” of good QB play. Manning had been playing well in the playoffs for years, but with no ground game and a weaker defense than other strong quarterbacks had, his team struggled to generate those January wins. Without any significant improvement in his personal play (in fact, it seems he played worse), his team gelled as an entire unit. With high support levels in 2006, he finally got “his” ring.

Now, let’s take a look at Tom Brady. What’s happened to his once spotless playoff record? Well, the numbers suggest, that at least on some level, it wasn’t “his” playoff record, but the record of a team that is no longer together.

	QB Rating	Average Support level	WIN-LOSS Record
Brady’s First 10	91.0	4.10	10-0
Brady’s Next 9	80.6	1.66	4-5

Brady did have a higher QB rating that corresponded with the winning (I’ll address that shortly), but the drop-off in support levels seem more dramatic. Same as we did with Manning, let’s look at the individual statistics:

	Rush Yards for	Rush Yards Against	Turnovers generated/gm	Def or SP TDs/gm	Pts allowed
Brady’s First 10	116.9	84.0	2.2	0.4	15.8
Brady’s Next 9	99.67	118.67	1.56	0.22	23.11

You can see that they were not rushing as effectively, defending the run as effectively, making as many big plays on defense OR keeping the point total down. It’s significantly easier for a QB to win when opponents put up 15 points than when they put up 23. Now, there was also a drop-off in Brady’s QB rating since his first ten wins. Let’s look deeper into that.

	Yds/Att	Comp. %	% TDs	% Ints	Atts/game
Brady’s First 10	6.50	62	4.22 %	0.90 %	33.1
Brady’s Next 9	6.42	62	4.56 %	3.70 %	39.0

So Brady completed the same percentage of his passes, threw for TDs more often and also kept his yards/attempt pretty steady. The big difference is that he had to throw more often, and he threw picks at a much higher rate. I would argue that in years past, with the defense holding teams to lower point totals while the Patriots were outrushing opponents, Brady was less often forced to make something happen. I would argue it’s less about him becoming ineffective and more about him finding himself in difficult situations.

Final Thoughts

I think the “QB Support Level” can be a useful metric, particularly when examining individual games. Brady, Roethlisberger, and Manning are all undefeated when they have a support level above 1.5. Likewise, all of them have abysmal records when the support level is below 0. Do some Quarterbacks “just win” when it comes to crunch time, or do some QBs get more support from the rest of the 53 man roster?

APPENDIX I: CALCULATING "QB SUPPORT."

RUSHING YARDS

Rushing Yards for :.015 points for each rushing yard a QB’s team generates (.75 for 50 yards)

Rushing Yards against :-.015 points for each rushing yard a QB’s team allows (-.75 for 50 yards)Essentially, a QB gets +/- .75 points for every 50 yard disadvantage/advantage in the ground game

POINTS ALLOWED
9 points or less = 3 points

10 to 16 points = 2 points

17 to 21 points = 1 point

22 to 30 points = 0 points

Over 30 points = - 1 point

*In calculating points, you subtract 7 points for any INT returned for a TD. Those TDs fall on the shoulders of the QB and shouldn’t be calculated in how much “support” they are getting from the overall team.

DEFENSE OR SPECIAL TEAMS TDs

1.5 points for each TD

TURNOVERS GENERATED

.75 for each turnover your defense creates.